Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan have pledged to treat an armed attack on one as an attack on all. Is the Makkah Pact the foundation of a new NATO-style alliance—or an ambitious framework whose military credibility has yet to be built?

The US–Israel–Iran conflict has entered a dangerous pause. Direct strikes have slowed, but the strategic contest continues through the Strait of Hormuz, maritime pressure, sanctions, Lebanon, and the wider role of Russia and China. This TSB analysis examines three possible paths ahead: a negotiated settlement, a frozen conflict, or a renewed phase of active operations.