The US–Israel–Iran conflict has entered a dangerous pause. Direct strikes have slowed, but the strategic contest continues through the Strait of Hormuz, maritime pressure, sanctions, Lebanon, and the wider role of Russia and China. This TSB analysis examines three possible paths ahead: a negotiated settlement, a frozen conflict, or a renewed phase of active operations.

Russia has begun deploying the first operational elements of Rassvet, its emerging low-Earth-orbit satellite internet system. The project is still far from matching Starlink in scale, but it already deserves close attention: not as a copy of a Western model, but as a sovereign communications layer with potential consequences for Russian military resilience, remote civilian connectivity, Arctic operations, and state control over critical infrastructure.