The UAE’s order for 10 Embraer C-390 Millennium aircraft, with options for 10 more, gives Brazil’s military airlifter its first Middle East customer and a major validation point in the global medium-lift market. For Embraer, the deal is not only an export win. It strengthens the C-390’s position as a serious challenger in a replacement cycle shaped by ageing C-130 fleets, lifecycle-cost pressure and demand for faster, flexible, multi-mission airlift.

The US–Israel–Iran conflict has entered a dangerous pause. Direct strikes have slowed, but the strategic contest continues through the Strait of Hormuz, maritime pressure, sanctions, Lebanon, and the wider role of Russia and China. This TSB analysis examines three possible paths ahead: a negotiated settlement, a frozen conflict, or a renewed phase of active operations.